UNEXPECTED RETURNS ED EASTERLING PDF

How I came across this book in the first place was when I was looking into the relationship between stock market returns and a number of other factors, such as interest rates, inflation, earnings, dividend yield, unemployment, GDP, home price index, etc. I pulled down the raw data from here , plugged them into Excel and looked at the various relationships. After some time, I saw that there is a consistent relationship between stock price levels and the inflation rate. The stock market does well in times of low, stable inflation, and does poorly in times of high inflation or deflation. There and then, I knew I found a treasure trove, plus a person that does interesting research. I finally got a copy of this and quickly digested it over 3 days.

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Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research boils down his views on long term markets to 12 rules of secular stock market cycles. Secular cycles are driven by the inflation rate deflation, price stability, and higher inflation. Cyclical cycles are driven by market psychology, illiquidity, or other generally temporary condition s.

If economic growth shifts upward or downward for the foreseeable future, the natural range moves upward or downward, respectively. Secular cycles are driven by the inflation rate deflation, price stability, and higher inflation 2.

Cyclical bulls and bears are interim periods of directional swings within secular periods 5. Cyclical cycles are driven by market psychology, illiquidity, or other generally temporary condition s 6. Time is irrelevant to the length of secular stock market cycles 7.

If economic growth shifts upward or downward for the foreseeable future, the natural range moves upward or downward, respectively Spread the wealth. What's been said: Discussions found on the web:. Read this next.

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Unexpected Returns

There was a time when many investors focused on short-term stock investing results. Bulls were those who expected stocks to do well in the next year or two or three. Bears were those who expected stocks to do poorly in the next year or two or three. We still often hear the bull vs. In recent decades, most investors have learned that the short-term is unpredictable. This is progress.

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Ed Easterling’s 12 Rules of Market Cycles

Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research boils down his views on long term markets to 12 rules of secular stock market cycles. Secular cycles are driven by the inflation rate deflation, price stability, and higher inflation. Cyclical cycles are driven by market psychology, illiquidity, or other generally temporary condition s. If economic growth shifts upward or downward for the foreseeable future, the natural range moves upward or downward, respectively. Secular cycles are driven by the inflation rate deflation, price stability, and higher inflation 2.

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